Sunday, October 19, 2008

Variance = downswing

Didn't quite get in as much play as I expected over the weekend although still managed a couple hours. They turned out to be a couple hours of pain.

On Interpoker i'm running at -17bb/100 over 500 hands at $2/4. I'm still down on my W$SD, but what is really costing me is that i'm not managing to win ANY of the very large pots. There's been several 25BB+ pots where i've held the 2nd nuts on the river, or i've been in front until a nasty river card. Just one or two of those and i'm back all square.

Couple that with a brief couple sessions on the $1/2 tables where I managed to run at a negative -40BB/100 over 200 hands and its not a pretty picture. My went to showdown was an amazingly low 20%, and couple that with a W$SD of 30%, and theres no way that my end results are going to look any good.

I think that basically puts me back to square one for the month, although i've accrued some bonus cash on Bodog and done 1/3 of the 1,500mpps I require on Interpoker to clear the bonus there which will put my monthly result positive ... for now. Hopefully it turns around soon, as without bonuses i figure i've lost around 120BBs from my peak bankroll, which is a nasty little swing. I guess it also demonstrates the importance of good bonuses/rakeback.

The thing is, I haven't even been playing that badly. I don't think i've tilted at all, and my table selection has been very solid, always playing with a number of big fish, and always with position on at least one of them.

Its still short of my worst run of around -300BBs ... hopefully it doesn't go that bleak!

Current bankroll: $13,150


TiocfaidhArLa said...

Your ability to analyse your play, realise that it is just variance and not tilt will see you end the month in positive territory I'm sure.

L4Y SP said...

HMMMM......very interesting . I run so much on confidence that this would really throw me . I shall be watching with interest . It's hardly necessary for a player who is + $13,000 but good luck anyway . Adam