Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Variance doesn't always go your way

I actually got in almost two hours play in the last couple days. More than I played in the entire last weekend, but I digress.

It started fairly well, up about 25BBs on the $1/2 tables inside the first 20 minutes.

I then found a seat on the left of a bit of a maniac on a $2/4 table. He was running at 80/40/2/50. I then proceeded to rapidly donk off about 40BBs. Every possible runner runner, or rivering he would hit. The times my AK hit, he'd show some crappy pair that had made a set on the turn or river. Unbelievably frustrating, as I ended up with something like a 30% WTSD (yeah I clean missed a LOT) and a W$SD of 30% due to some of those very rude suckouts.

I actually meant to capture one of the hands against him which i've lost now. It was an interesting spot, which i'll try to find. I think I had something like JTs in the BB and reraised his steal attempt from the SB and he then 3 bet me preflop (although he was a maniac with the first raise he often did not 3 bet, and would often fold to a raise if he just limped in the sb). The flop was AJ2r, which he bet and I called, so i'm figuring there's a fair chance he has the A - ie given his 3 bet preflop, i'm in trouble here reasonably often, but given its 7:1 and I have a pair in a blind battle i'm not giving up yet. Turn is a K, which is pretty horrible although does at least give me a gutshot. Here he checks .... and i'm thinking wtf ... how can he not bet that? It gives me a gutshot at least.

So the question for anyone is what do I do here? Just check behind? Or take a stab to see if he folds? Maybe my pair of Jacks is enough? This is probably a no brainer, but I actually had to think about it for a bit and i'm still not 100% sure I took the correct course of action.

Anyways, that was my last hand on that table before it broke up which was annoying. Hate having to leave just after i've paid a BB.

Add on another 10BB loss on the $3/6 tables and my bankroll is shrinking quicker than i'd like.

Fast forward another half hour or so, and i've had a fairly decent run and nailed a couple big pots with the nuts. (Also managed to lose one particular hand in a largish pot of say $70 when my opponent hit a runner runner two pair whilst holding T5o with no draw on the flop versus my QQ. Go figure .. and yes I am always playing on the left of a fish who does chase that kinda crap, although I guess they are not THAT bad very often). I had probably recovered about 30BBs, and it could easily have been a lot more if a couple other key hands had gone my way. I was still down statistically on my W$SD, which would have at least evened me up, and more likely put me in profit if I was running to expectation.

The last half hour of play saw me giving back a little of my recovery, where again a in a couple big hands I got crucified on the river by some punk chasing a runner runner gutshot to bust my AA on a A high rainbow flop.

Add on a rakeback credit from the other day, and my session only ended up being a moderate loser. Plenty of very frustrating beats though where I was ready to punch someone, but you get that sometimes.

Current bankroll: $15,050


The blindman said...

I feel your pain, I've been there a lot in the last month.

On the JT hand, I am probably just checking behind and calling a river bet. QQ looks quite likely, but I can't see him folding it. On the other hand I can't see him calling a bet with any hand that you beat except maybe TT. Against a rational player I might bet/fold the turn, but against a maniac I'll value check and hope for a bluff on the river from a worse hand.

TiocfaidhArLa said...

Sorry to be a bore, but I'm with the Blindman. There is no reason for a maniac to slow down there unless letting you catch up. I'd say KK. I'm calling down river too.

Admin said...


Would you say that around 50% of your profit is from Bonus/rakeback?
Just wondering.....

Best Regards


parttimebonuschaser said...

I chose to check behind, planning to call the river. River ended up being a T giving me two pair ... which he bet, and i made a crying call for him to show Q9s for the straight ... wtf

Mark - about 2/3 rakeback, 1/3 from play in limit poker for me

The blindman said...

Ok. He probably doesn't fold his gutshot if you bet and it sounds like there's a good chance he fires if he misses anyway. But Q9 srsly wtf?

TiocfaidhArLa said...

The best thing about NLH, when you lose you usually have just yourself and variance to blame. Wtf.