Monday, August 10, 2009

When stats don't tell you the full story

Didn't really play last night so i'll give a few more details on my session the other day which was a little interesting as a few players played somewhat differently than I had thought that their stats on my HUD would suggest.

For example, I had one guy who was around 45 vpip, 5 pfr, 0.35 aggression factor, with a wtsd of around 35%

Now to me, that means with a 45 voluntary put in pot (vpip) he is playing too many hands - although i'd often look for even fishier, but he is still quite loose.

The low (5%) preflop raise % indicates that he doesn't raise preflop unless he has something like AA-TT, AK-AJ, and maybe KQ, but unlikely. So basically, if this guy raises, unless I have something big i'm getting out the way.

The 0.35 aggression factor looks like he's not that aggressive, so probably only bets when he has a pretty solid hand. Possibly even better than top pair.

The 35% wtsd is about right - a little lower than normal, but since he's playing crappier hands preflop you'd expect him to showdown a little less. Overall you'd say he's generally showing down with half decent hands.

Now ... come actual play against him and i'm like wtf is he doing.

In one early hand he's open limped with AA and then waited for the river to actually bet it. Although given his low aggression factor that's probably not surprising.

A few hands later I 3 bet his opening raise when i'm holding QQ. He calls and donks a K high flop with one other runner. I didn't have a note on what he like to donk with so ended up just calling him down due to his low aggression factor. He actually bet every street with a naked AJ. Obviously when I scoop a decent size pot there I take a note.

An orbit or two later and he's cold called a raise by me which he's done a few times. This time I have AK and hit an AK4r flop. He donks again, calls my raise and then donks the turn of a T. Surely not QJ? Surely he's not betting it that hard on the flop and then donking the turn. I call his donk, and his river bet, and he flips over a pair of 8s. To me that's a pretty aggressive and completely spewy way to play a pair of 8s - and really doesn't gel with his low AF.

So I just scoop another largish pot, and take another note. This guy only seems to bet when he doesn't have much and slowplays his monsters. I guess that's a good way to play if you don't like money. It is also an interesting case where you need to rely more on notes than pure statistics.

Current bankroll: $20,000
August time played: 8h
August profit/(loss): $300


The greatest criminal poker mind said...

As a regular reader of your blog I hope you don't mind me saying that you could make it a lot easier for everyone to read by simply adding 1 space after each comma, and 2 spaces after each full stop. Cheers.


parttimebonuschaser said...

Well mate, I would do, and actually do that when i'm typing. Blogger takes out the extra space when you hit post.

Unless you know of a workaround for this, i'm kinda stuck.