Thursday, November 6, 2008

The curse of the online poker player - ADSL dropouts

The last few sessions have been fairly frustrating with dropouts in my ADSL in the middle of a session. I generally have all-in protection, but still they are only going to cause losses. And frustration. Lots of it.

So now i'm thinking my current router/modem has to go. I'm using a Billion 7404VGPM, which in theory was supposed to be a decent product. It was okay when it was running its best, but now its downright dire.

Anyways, i'm thinking of grabbing a Draytek 2700VG (yes I want VOIP as well). Anyone have any thoughts on this brand/model? I obviously want something rock solid reliable as priority #1, and VOIP would also be very handy.

No real poker last night because of the dropouts .... in maybe 10 minutes i made 1BB ...

I also signed up for a Party reload, but only for the minimum amount as I almost have enough points for another $20 cash, as long as I keep my current status on there. (which means earning 1 party point per week basically).

Current bankroll: $14,000

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Applying the wisdom of Warren Buffett to poker

I wonder if its possible .. but here are a few quotes from the great man and how i'd apply them to poker:

"I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute. " Not sure if its useful for poker, but a good motto to live by ....

"I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over. " Why challenge the sharks when you can play against fish?

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently. " The same can happen to your bankroll. Think about it.

"Of the billionaires I have known, money just brings out the basic traits in them. If they were jerks before they had money, they are simply jerks with a billion dollars. " I suspect the same applies to poker players some will be nice, others not so nice

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. " He who bets outside his bankroll will be caught when the inevitable downswing happens

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. " Know what you are doing ...

"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." Whilst not applying to individual sessions or hands, I think you can apply this appropriately to bankroll management


"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks. " For some people limit holdem might not be their game. For others poker might not be their game. If its not, its time to try something else

"The only time to buy these is on a day with no "y" in it." Its never a good day to play a -EV game

"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. " Keep it simple - abc poker will work relatively often

"Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre. " Variance will even out over time and show whether you are a winning or losing player


"We enjoy the process far more than the proceeds." Interesting concept. Almost applies to myself I think


"Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like? As Mae West said, "Too much of a good thing can be wonderful". " Play on sites you enjoy playing on and against players you enjoy playing against


"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. " Do you need to focus on multiple games, or ensure you are very skilled at one?


"You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong. " Too many small errors will add up to a big hole in your bankroll


That might be the end of my semi-thoughtful posts for a bit as I think i'm outta ideas, so the next few might be a few more boring session updates and hand histories. Will see.

In terms of play I put in about an hour last night, but couldn't find too many soft tables so was stuck with playing only one or two tables at a time. I eeked out a gain of 7BBs at $2/4, broke even at $3/6, and lost a few BBs at $1/2, so no big movement in the bankroll, although should see a small increase in rakeback in the next day or two.

I still need to stop myself from going into the chat box to give my 2c on a bonehead suckout that has cost me 10-20BBs. I'm sure one day I will quit doin it. Don't tap on the aquarium and all that ....

Current bankroll: $14,000

Poker database issues

Well I knew it was only a matter of time before I had some database problems with my pokertracker ... Since my Vista install didnt like SQL for some reason (a driver issue), i've been using the Access databases option. In order to manage that risk somewhat I made a separate database for each network that I play on.

However, since blindman asked me the question on how i'm doing, and I couldn't find as many hands as I was expecting to find at the $2/4 and $3/6 levels, I realised that one of my databases has died and taken about 15,000 hands with it. Its my own fault though, as I think the fix to SQL was relatively simple - deleting the problem driver and then letting it reinstall with SQL. Anyways, I really should get around to installing it and converting all my access databases ... maybe tonight.... or maybe not...

As far as play goes, I got in about half an hour, mainly on interpoker and cake on the $2/4 and $3/6 tables. The first 15 minutes went very well with me hitting a few hands and gaining about 20BBs. Then the death fish comes along. A player I had 200 hands against in the database who was running at 70/10/.2/45 with a W$SD of 35% and a -15BB/100. Of course in the 5 or 6 hands I am head to head against him he manages to suck out a gutshot or 2nd pair or trips on the river on every single hand to sink me by 25BBs in a matter of 15 minutes. That put me back basically square for the session. It sux, but it happens.

Current bankroll: $14,000

Monday, November 3, 2008

Long term poker goals

Thought i'd finally get around to posting a few thoughts which might actually set some direction for me over the longer term. I guess i'll start with a few questions for myself:

Do I have ambitions to turn professional? Well the short answer is no. I like the social side of working a regular job, and even though I am an introvert, I'm sure i'd go nuts just playing poker online day after day. It would be very isolating I think. Even if I have a day or two off work now and decide to play poker, I do not just play for the whole day, as I get tired of it.

What is my motivation to play? I like winning at whatever I attempt to do. I like money. I don't necessarily need to be the best though, so I won't play against the best players, or even those too tight for the game to be EV+

Will I switch to no limit or some other form of poker? To be honest, i'm not sure. I regularly read that people find no limit easier - maybe there are more fish in the pool. However, given I am doing okay, I guess I don't feel the need to fix something that ain't broke.

Will I move up limits? Well, I started at .5/1 effectively, so I have moved up from there. I'm not convinced I will go a lot further than $4/8, although with good table selection I will be playing the occasional $5/10 game in the near future. In a couple years though I suspect the easier money will still be up to the $3/6 level. Might need to think about this some more.

What do I want out of poker? For the moment its a bit of extra income on the side. I am certain I wouldn't want to be reliant on the game as my only source of income as I believe that would drastically decrease my enjoyment of the game. I guess I also enjoy the challenge of growing my bankroll. I'm not sure if this is to prove anything to myself, or if I see at as kind of a video game where your bankroll is effectively your score, and I like to do well in games so the bigger the score the better.

How do I stay motivated? Basically I play when I want to play. Admittedly this is quite often still at the moment, but as soon as I get sidetracked or a bit bored I quit and only come back when I really want to play again. I think the fact that there is no pressure on me to do well also is a significant factor. Just having a blog may also motivate me to a degree I think - at least it prevents me from being too lazy and ensures that I do analyse my play after a significant loss or win.

So where would I actually like to be in a couple years? I think i'll still be playing limit poker predominantly unless the games completely dry up. I think I will still be at the medium stakes level with play mostly at the $3/$6-$5/$10 levels, and mainly at the lower end of that scale. I can't see myself playing more hours, so it will still be kind of a hobby at 20-30 hours per month. In terms of monetary targets, i'd like to have a bankroll somewhere around $40,000-$50,000 mark, with a fair chunk of that offline earning at least $200 per month for doing nothing. I suspect I won't be chasing bonuses quite as much but relying more on rakeback and reloads as I would have already completed many of the sign up bonus offers.

What is wrong with the higher stakes? I don't want to reach my level of incompetence, where I am no longer good enough to beat the game, which will happen if I just keep on moving up. (And I do have plenty of leaks which would probably be exploited!). Although I think that if I find myself with a $40k bankroll, I might actually play some of the $10/20 or higher games if I happen to spot a fishy table. It does all become relevant after a while - when I started a $2/4 game would have appeared to be crazy, so I guess you never know, maybe the bigger tables won't look so big in a couple years.

Tournaments? I just don't have the patience, or the inclination to spend multiple hours just sitting there. I think smallish sitngos are about my limit for them to be EV+ so I can't see anything changing in the next couple years.

Live play? Whilst I do quite enjoy live play, 30 hands an hour and a 10% rake is just atrocious. The local casino here is very fishy though. To be honest, the only time i'll bother going there is if its with a mate or two and we're just going to have fun. Its always good to come out in front though, so I do play a TAG style against the fishes.

What about education? I guess I haven't felt the need to sign up for a website like stox or cardrunners or anything like that. I find experience to be a great teacher, as long as I have a sound base, which I think I have from the Stox and Boerer books. I will continue to look at hands on 2p2 though from time to time, and see if my thinking is consistent with others. If anyone brings out a new book that is raved about, I will probably give it a go. If I switch to no limit I have no doubt i'd get Harrington on cash first.

How will I stay on track to achieving these goals? Probably through a couple ways - this blog for one, and in particular making sure I continue to do everything in yesterday's post. You never know though, I might get bored one day and quit playing altogether. Not super likely right now, but it could happen. Or my game could develop so many leaks that I dont notice that my play becomes EV- ... and then I would quit whilst I was still in front.

So I am going to .....? just keep cruising along. Everything always works out in the end

Might add some more if I think of any ....

Multiple sites simultaneously

I've noticed having multiple sites open at once is normally not much of a problem. However, when you add Cake into the mix with no HUD, it does become a little more tricky, as I have to make sure I have time to make manual notes. I'm still comfortable with 4 tables open, although it can be a little hectic and occasionally I need to open hand histories to back track on notes on some players.

I don't think it hurts my win rate though, as I can spot the fish relatively quickly, although do have the occasional revision where i've mistaken a LAG for a fish.

I got in about an hour of play last night, which turned out to be relatively profitable. Cake had some nice $2/4 and $3/6 tables, although I didn't really go far with them but made a few BBs. Should have some nice rakeback though. I found a nice $2/4 table on Interpoker though, and for once I didn't get slaughtered there. I'm back to being a bit better than -3BB/100 there now ... after making 25BBs ... sheesh. There was one other pretty decent table on interpoker with two tags and three pretty big fish. Problem was I found myself directly to the left of the two tags, and that made for some pretty hard going, so I quit the table after a couple orbits.

Current bankroll: $14,000

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Attributes for a successful poker player

Thought I might just copy, paste and modify my response to one of TiocfaidhArLa comments as it might be useful to come back to one day. Basically the question was:

"if someone wanted to emulate your success what are the key attributes they need - discipline, attention to detail, study, natural talent for games etc?"

So in answering from my perspective and what works for me -

Conservatism - (this probably sounds weird as an attribute for effectively gambling, however I don't really view poker as a gamble - to me its more like I have a small edge so the more I play the more likely I am to win). I am not at all worried about dropping down levels when I have a cool run. I'm a bankroll nit to a high degree ... i like to have several 1,000 BBs in my bankroll. (ie bearing in mind i've lost 300BBs once before, that would be a disaster to say a 500BB bankroll which i'm not prepared to go through). I guess this relates to bankroll management most directly, and as they say if you don't manage your bankroll correctly you are going broke. I don't want to go broke.

Discipline - includes a) not tilting, and quitting immediately when seeing it coming on. b) the ability to actual notice tilt coming on. c) always table selecting and quitting tables as soon as they turn poor.

Preparation - Study I am admittedly a bit lazy on however I read the stox book and the boerer book early on and occasionally hit up 2p2 but I don't do as much as I should. Yes I use their basic charts for starting hands, and used to have a hard copy out whenever I played. Now I would play basically to those charts adjusting for opponents off the top of my head.

Self Analysis - I review my own stats regularly, particularly after a bit of a losing run. I find that I sometimes become a bit too showdown bound which I have to reign in. Most of the time though its just variance and running super cool at showdowns. Hot runs tend to be the reverse.

Opponent Analysis - The use of software tools is invaluable. I use Pokertracker2 for my database and Gametime+ as my HUD although i'm fairly sure i'd do better with pokerace, but will wait till PT3 is compatible with all sites before I get it. The key thing here though is to be able to adjust my play slightly depending upon opponent tendencies. On sites that don't allow Pokertracker I make sure I take notes and rate every single opponent.

Confidence - When i'm confident I can beat any given level, and not play scared i'm generally the most successful. (Although overconfidence might lead to playing too many hands which would be very bad). For me the confidence baseline is still probably at $1/2 where i'm sure I can clean up over the long term. I'm fairly sure I can do the same at $2/4 and $3/6 but when in doubt I still drop back, although admittedly most of my $1/2 play is on Bodog which doesn't have $2/4 or $3/6 6 max and I will now be playing more 2/4 and 3/6 cake and interpoker.

Perceptive and flexible - this can be as simple as being aware of someone's stats, and how you should play against them. For example if they rarely showdown you know to put real pressure on them on early streets. If you get resistance from one of these players you'd know to throw it away unless you have a strong hand. Also if you notice someone times out when you're heads up against them and you're the next to act, you want to isnta-raise and hope they don't have any disconnect protection to take an easy pot. Some people may think this a little unethical, but I figure it happens to me sometimes so it would all even out. In my last session when the guy reconnected he said he had flopped a boat versus my 3rd pair ...

Adaptable - if you're playing relatively small stakes and want to get the best returns you need to be able to sign up at multiple sites to gain the best deals. For example, many of the one off PSO sign up bonuses offer returns far in excess of 100% rakeback, so its often in my best interest to play on new sites. I also find myself often playing on multiple sites at the same time due to limited traffic or fishy tables on the individual sites. Takes a little getting used to, but I have adapted. Will I adapt to other games or NL? Maybe. One day.

Concentration - if you cant concentrate on the action and the tables then poker would quickly become a losing venture. Making a mess of a single hand for say 10BBs by misclicking the fold button undoes 750 or so hands of good solid play.

Self awareness - you need to know your own strengths and weaknesses and in particular your limitations. For me, i'm generally only able to concentrate for maybe a couple hours max, and the majority of my sessions are probably more like half an hour to an hour. This means i'll often take a break and do something else after a session before coming back to it. It also means that i'm probably never going to get huge value from a MTT as I just end up losing concentration and making some bonehead play when I just make it into the money.

Inquisitive - A desire to know the ins and outs of any rakeback or bonus deals is important in being able to assess how good a particular deal is. Also realising that rakeback figures alone don't necessarily tell the whole story on how good a site is, particularly where rake taken can vary significantly. For example 27%RB of a 2BB/100 rake is far better than 40%RB of a 3BB/100 rake.

Patience - even after beat after beat, you still need to be patient and wait for the right hands. Sure I have runs of playing less than 10% of hands, which is extremely low at 6 max, but other times you hit premium hand after premium hand and more than make up for it. (Provided you don't run out of patience, tilt, and lose a stack of BBs)

I might add some if I think of anymore ....

All that being said, i'm still not 100% sure i'm a winning player, although have done okay so far. I guess though the key thing to note is that total return is far more important than actually winning at the table which is why rakeback and bonuses are so important to me. Will be interesting to see how the next few months go.

I'm sure others would have advanced through the ranks quicker through much less conservative bankroll management, but i'm comfortable with my progress. I might actually be a bit further along if the share market wasnt killin me at the moment and i hadn't withdrawn quite as much of my bankroll, but thats another story ...

Cake reload

Well it took a month of prayer, and Cake have come through with the goods in their halloween reload. Pity they charge a fairly hefty deposit fee against your MGR, but its still significantly EV+

Only got in a couple hours play in total over the weekend, and it started poorly when Bodog decided to keep on smashing me at the $1/2 tables. I had one table which had 65% of players seeing the flop, and managed to drop 40BBs in 120 hands. Ugly.

Also found a nice Interpoker table with two huge fish who had VPIPs of 90%. They also managed to suck out about 15BBs from me early, before the table fell to 3 handed. At this point i'd normally leave, but these two guys were obviously extremely loose, but were also very passive. They allowed me to take back all my losses and then gain about 10BBs through basic aggressive play when ever I hit hands.

I also had a couple Cake tables open although very few were running. One table was a $1/2 table where a two fish seemed to be eating me alive and I dropped another 20BBs. The other table was a $3/6 table with an average of 71% of players seeing the flop. Basically every flop was at least 4 ways, so obviously you had to hit your hand reasonably hard for it to hold up. I fluctuated a fair bit there before leaving a bit over 5BBs up when my nut flush draw hit, after my previous 4 had managed to miss in huge pots. Still .. it cleared some bonus points very quickly and would have earned me some reasonable rakeback.

Current bankroll: $13,850