After a bit of thinking I believe i'll set up my HUD with two rows of stats. The first row will be VPIP, PFR, AFq, WTSD with the second row 3B, ATS, FBBTS, FTCbet.
I'll quickly describe the first four now and what i'm looking for and the next four in my next post. Mostly because I am too lazy to type it all out now. Please bear in mind they are all for 6max fixed limit holdem.
VPIP - volutary put in pot. This is probably one of the key stats to determine if you're up against a total fish. Anything much above 40% is pretty loose, and means they're playing a wide variety of hands. There are exceptions, say if they have a 25% PFR to go with their 40% vpip, then they might not be too bad. I like to have someone with a 50%+ vpip on my immediate right with a low PFR, and even another to their right if possible. Anyone with a 90% vpip is a dream come true. That being said I don't mind having fairly tight guys on my left that I can steal blinds from.
PFR - Preflop raise %. A decent player is normally around 20%, and I really like to have passive players on my right - less than 5% is perfect. If someone is say 2% it means they are basically only raising AA and KK, and I know to get out of their way.
AFq - Aggression frequency - How often they bet compared with check/calling. I understand that a decent player is around 40% - 60%. Anyone under that is passive, which is what i'm looking for. Anyone over that is very aggressive and is often betting fairly poor hands - I will tend to call these guys down more often with weak but winnable hands. Sure they have the good sometimes, but often they don't.
WTSD - Went to showdown - How often a player does go to showdown. A high percentage here often means they're prepared to call down with fairly weak holdings. A decent player is around 35%-40%. If someone has a high vpip and a high wtsd i'll try to get in as many pots against them as possible as I know they are likely showing down trash fairly often.
Generally I use a combination of the above statistics to work out their range of possible hands. As you can narrow their range of hands you can work out how likely your own hand is to hold up, and whether you should bet, raise or fold. That really is the key of the statistics and the HUD - using the information to better predict your opponent's range of hands.
For example if i'm on the button preflop and someone with a PFR of 40% raises before me and I have AJ, i'm going to 3 bet here every time and try to get it heads up. If i'm in the same situation and the guy doing the raise has a PFR of 3% i'm throwing my AJ in the muck as his range has my hand completely crushed.
Post flop I look to AFq to give me further information on the type of hand they might be holding compared to what is out on the board. If someone bets into me and has an AFq of say 20%, then I know unless I have a very strong hand i'm going to have to fold because he more than likely has the goods. If on the other hand he has an AFq of 65% and i'm holding second or third pair i'm calling down. If my hand is stronger i'm probably even reraising this player.
Okay that's enough theory for now. Pokertracker annoyed me again last night, and decided to creat 200Gb of log files which brought my PC to a grinding halt. I ended up having to delete files just to get my PC running properly again. I then just extracted my hand histories in smaller chunks and now have an up to date database ... I think.
I also found one of those dream players a 95%/0% (vpip/pfr) sitting on a $3/6 table with no one on his left. I sat down, and then got creamed, whilst he was then kind enough to give my money to the other players. My AA got busted by his 62o when he hit quad 2s on the river, and he also just called instead of raising my river bet. A few hands later his 75o was too good for my J9s after a flop of 789 ... obviously the river was a 6. Had a worse result on the $1/2 tables where I dropped about 25BBs in pretty quick time. The river was not my friend.
Current bankroll: $20,700
October time played: 12h
October profit / (loss): $800
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
When stats don't tell you the full story
Didn't really play last night so i'll give a few more details on my session the other day which was a little interesting as a few players played somewhat differently than I had thought that their stats on my HUD would suggest.
For example, I had one guy who was around 45 vpip, 5 pfr, 0.35 aggression factor, with a wtsd of around 35%
Now to me, that means with a 45 voluntary put in pot (vpip) he is playing too many hands - although i'd often look for even fishier, but he is still quite loose.
The low (5%) preflop raise % indicates that he doesn't raise preflop unless he has something like AA-TT, AK-AJ, and maybe KQ, but unlikely. So basically, if this guy raises, unless I have something big i'm getting out the way.
The 0.35 aggression factor looks like he's not that aggressive, so probably only bets when he has a pretty solid hand. Possibly even better than top pair.
The 35% wtsd is about right - a little lower than normal, but since he's playing crappier hands preflop you'd expect him to showdown a little less. Overall you'd say he's generally showing down with half decent hands.
Now ... come actual play against him and i'm like wtf is he doing.
In one early hand he's open limped with AA and then waited for the river to actually bet it. Although given his low aggression factor that's probably not surprising.
A few hands later I 3 bet his opening raise when i'm holding QQ. He calls and donks a K high flop with one other runner. I didn't have a note on what he like to donk with so ended up just calling him down due to his low aggression factor. He actually bet every street with a naked AJ. Obviously when I scoop a decent size pot there I take a note.
An orbit or two later and he's cold called a raise by me which he's done a few times. This time I have AK and hit an AK4r flop. He donks again, calls my raise and then donks the turn of a T. Surely not QJ? Surely he's not betting it that hard on the flop and then donking the turn. I call his donk, and his river bet, and he flips over a pair of 8s. To me that's a pretty aggressive and completely spewy way to play a pair of 8s - and really doesn't gel with his low AF.
So I just scoop another largish pot, and take another note. This guy only seems to bet when he doesn't have much and slowplays his monsters. I guess that's a good way to play if you don't like money. It is also an interesting case where you need to rely more on notes than pure statistics.
Current bankroll: $20,000
August time played: 8h
August profit/(loss): $300
For example, I had one guy who was around 45 vpip, 5 pfr, 0.35 aggression factor, with a wtsd of around 35%
Now to me, that means with a 45 voluntary put in pot (vpip) he is playing too many hands - although i'd often look for even fishier, but he is still quite loose.
The low (5%) preflop raise % indicates that he doesn't raise preflop unless he has something like AA-TT, AK-AJ, and maybe KQ, but unlikely. So basically, if this guy raises, unless I have something big i'm getting out the way.
The 0.35 aggression factor looks like he's not that aggressive, so probably only bets when he has a pretty solid hand. Possibly even better than top pair.
The 35% wtsd is about right - a little lower than normal, but since he's playing crappier hands preflop you'd expect him to showdown a little less. Overall you'd say he's generally showing down with half decent hands.
Now ... come actual play against him and i'm like wtf is he doing.
In one early hand he's open limped with AA and then waited for the river to actually bet it. Although given his low aggression factor that's probably not surprising.
A few hands later I 3 bet his opening raise when i'm holding QQ. He calls and donks a K high flop with one other runner. I didn't have a note on what he like to donk with so ended up just calling him down due to his low aggression factor. He actually bet every street with a naked AJ. Obviously when I scoop a decent size pot there I take a note.
An orbit or two later and he's cold called a raise by me which he's done a few times. This time I have AK and hit an AK4r flop. He donks again, calls my raise and then donks the turn of a T. Surely not QJ? Surely he's not betting it that hard on the flop and then donking the turn. I call his donk, and his river bet, and he flips over a pair of 8s. To me that's a pretty aggressive and completely spewy way to play a pair of 8s - and really doesn't gel with his low AF.
So I just scoop another largish pot, and take another note. This guy only seems to bet when he doesn't have much and slowplays his monsters. I guess that's a good way to play if you don't like money. It is also an interesting case where you need to rely more on notes than pure statistics.
Current bankroll: $20,000
August time played: 8h
August profit/(loss): $300
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Busy
As expected, December is looking like a lean month for poker. Since Friday i've put in under an hour worth of play. And even then that play has netted me only a couple BBs and a little rakeback as well.
I actually continued to run fairly cool for my session, and just couldn't seem to hit a draw, or when I did have a solid hand my opponent's draw would hit. Quite frustrating, but I also actually got my opponents to fold quite often to flop and turn cbets, which basically kept my nose above water.
I'm going to have to put in a few hours at some stage though, just to clear the monthly Interpoker bonus. I've done about 20% of it so far, mostly in a single small session, so it shouldn't be too difficult - its just finding the time to sit down and do it.
I had a quick check of my stats on both Interpoker and Bodog. Interpoker, i'm crawling back up. From running at an insanely cold -3BB/100 early last month i'm now a still rather crappy -2BB/100 over 4,000 hands. I think I should be able to keep closing this up and eventually turn positive. With bonuses and rakeback however, i'm actually still up on the site.
Bodog in my 11,000 hands i've also crawled up slightly, getting back to -0.5BB/100 after dropping to almost -1BB/100. It still sucks to be running so cool, but i'm sure i'm due for a half decent heater sooner or later. There's actually one opponent in my Bodog database with stats of 39%/8%/2/40% and he's showing winnings of 1BB/100 over 4000 hands. He does play a lot as he always seems to be on there, but I just can't see how they can be the stats of a winning player. I know he's taken a number of very rude hands from me, mainly from playing suited crap and hitting backdoor flushdraws, but i'm sure it will even out over the next 10k hands.
Current bankroll: $15,000
I actually continued to run fairly cool for my session, and just couldn't seem to hit a draw, or when I did have a solid hand my opponent's draw would hit. Quite frustrating, but I also actually got my opponents to fold quite often to flop and turn cbets, which basically kept my nose above water.
I'm going to have to put in a few hours at some stage though, just to clear the monthly Interpoker bonus. I've done about 20% of it so far, mostly in a single small session, so it shouldn't be too difficult - its just finding the time to sit down and do it.
I had a quick check of my stats on both Interpoker and Bodog. Interpoker, i'm crawling back up. From running at an insanely cold -3BB/100 early last month i'm now a still rather crappy -2BB/100 over 4,000 hands. I think I should be able to keep closing this up and eventually turn positive. With bonuses and rakeback however, i'm actually still up on the site.
Bodog in my 11,000 hands i've also crawled up slightly, getting back to -0.5BB/100 after dropping to almost -1BB/100. It still sucks to be running so cool, but i'm sure i'm due for a half decent heater sooner or later. There's actually one opponent in my Bodog database with stats of 39%/8%/2/40% and he's showing winnings of 1BB/100 over 4000 hands. He does play a lot as he always seems to be on there, but I just can't see how they can be the stats of a winning player. I know he's taken a number of very rude hands from me, mainly from playing suited crap and hitting backdoor flushdraws, but i'm sure it will even out over the next 10k hands.
Current bankroll: $15,000
Monday, October 27, 2008
Craptacular running
Both Bodog and Interpoker are still killin me! Interpoker i'm heading down towards requiring to reload range again, although I have about $80 in rakeback to receive shortly so hopefully will be okay there.
I came up against my nemesis fish Strasink or something like that on Interpoker. He's currently running at 70/40/4/50 with a W$SD of 65% as well over 150 hands. His main winning hands are 82s and T3s ... and every time he seems to suck out against me. I played another 30 hands against him in a half hour session, and again managed to not win a single showdown. Surely the card gods will smile on me soon and allow me to have a W$SD of 65% for a few hands even. My BB/100 has now dropped to -4BB/100. F me.
Bodog is a little more interesting where my BB/100 is now 0.5BB/100. Thing is i'm still running at a fairly cool 36% WTSD with only a 47% W$SD over 7,000 hands. So i'm basically a good 6%-8% down on my showdown wins, which equates to around 5BB/100. I'm probably reasonably lucky then to still be showing a profit over that many hands. Surely i'm going to warm up soon, or even show signs of normal showdown win rates ... i'd be happy with that. 7,000 hands is quite a lot to me to be running cool, as that's about all i'd play in an entire month. I know there are 2p2ers who have done 100,000 hands of break even, but I figure i'm probably a bit more table selective and seat selective so shouldn't run into that.
Hopefully will run hot soon, as it feels like its been a while since i've had a nice consistent run .. well not since last month :) hehe
Current bankroll: $13,550
I came up against my nemesis fish Strasink or something like that on Interpoker. He's currently running at 70/40/4/50 with a W$SD of 65% as well over 150 hands. His main winning hands are 82s and T3s ... and every time he seems to suck out against me. I played another 30 hands against him in a half hour session, and again managed to not win a single showdown. Surely the card gods will smile on me soon and allow me to have a W$SD of 65% for a few hands even. My BB/100 has now dropped to -4BB/100. F me.
Bodog is a little more interesting where my BB/100 is now 0.5BB/100. Thing is i'm still running at a fairly cool 36% WTSD with only a 47% W$SD over 7,000 hands. So i'm basically a good 6%-8% down on my showdown wins, which equates to around 5BB/100. I'm probably reasonably lucky then to still be showing a profit over that many hands. Surely i'm going to warm up soon, or even show signs of normal showdown win rates ... i'd be happy with that. 7,000 hands is quite a lot to me to be running cool, as that's about all i'd play in an entire month. I know there are 2p2ers who have done 100,000 hands of break even, but I figure i'm probably a bit more table selective and seat selective so shouldn't run into that.
Hopefully will run hot soon, as it feels like its been a while since i've had a nice consistent run .. well not since last month :) hehe
Current bankroll: $13,550
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Double up SNGs
I've played a few of these double your money SNGs on interpoker, mainly the 6 man ones, just as a bit of a break from the cash tables. They're actually reasonably fun, and relatively quick, as you only have to make it into the top half of the field to double your cash, and as soon as half the field is out, everyone goes all in.
So far the opponents i've seen have been a lot looser than I would have expected, although i've only played at the $5-$20 buy in level. I used to play them on Sun which is also on the Crypto network, but I think I played too many and got bored. Now its a nice change of pace again, so I figure i'll keep playing them from time to time.
My strategy in them so far has been to play tight early on, although if i can overlimp in cheap with either a pocket pair or suited connector I will give that a go too. Late game as the blinds increase I try to steal a few blinds from the mid stacks to maintain my stack, but generally don't get involved in a confrontation unless I have something relatively strong. I think patience is the key in these, as you're not necessarily aiming to win, just survive to the top half.
Also they credit 3mpps per $ in fees, and when you add in rakeback as well i'm paying virtually no rake whilst my bonus is still clearing.
I did get to play for a little over an hour last night, and had an interesting little session. There weren't many Interpoker tables running so I had to sniff around at Bodog and also opened one on Pacific. I could not believe how cold I started running. On Pacific I just couldn't hit anything, and even with a bit of a comback late in the session, I was running at a WTSD of 20%!!! ... and of those I was only winning 40%. WTF. Admittedly the suckouts were coming thick and fast. My Bodog and Interpoker tables also started terribly, but after the first 15 minutes turned around completely. On Interpoker I ended up at a 35% WTSD with a 75%W$SD, and had not quite as good, but similar results on Bodog.
Add in a couple small double up wins, and my bankroll increased by about 20BBs. WOuld have been more but Pacific was my big loser at $2/4, Interpoker was a big winner at $2/4, but Bodog was only at $1/2.
Current bankroll: $13,350
Note to self: go back through notes to self and actually post about them when they are relevant
So far the opponents i've seen have been a lot looser than I would have expected, although i've only played at the $5-$20 buy in level. I used to play them on Sun which is also on the Crypto network, but I think I played too many and got bored. Now its a nice change of pace again, so I figure i'll keep playing them from time to time.
My strategy in them so far has been to play tight early on, although if i can overlimp in cheap with either a pocket pair or suited connector I will give that a go too. Late game as the blinds increase I try to steal a few blinds from the mid stacks to maintain my stack, but generally don't get involved in a confrontation unless I have something relatively strong. I think patience is the key in these, as you're not necessarily aiming to win, just survive to the top half.
Also they credit 3mpps per $ in fees, and when you add in rakeback as well i'm paying virtually no rake whilst my bonus is still clearing.
I did get to play for a little over an hour last night, and had an interesting little session. There weren't many Interpoker tables running so I had to sniff around at Bodog and also opened one on Pacific. I could not believe how cold I started running. On Pacific I just couldn't hit anything, and even with a bit of a comback late in the session, I was running at a WTSD of 20%!!! ... and of those I was only winning 40%. WTF. Admittedly the suckouts were coming thick and fast. My Bodog and Interpoker tables also started terribly, but after the first 15 minutes turned around completely. On Interpoker I ended up at a 35% WTSD with a 75%W$SD, and had not quite as good, but similar results on Bodog.
Add in a couple small double up wins, and my bankroll increased by about 20BBs. WOuld have been more but Pacific was my big loser at $2/4, Interpoker was a big winner at $2/4, but Bodog was only at $1/2.
Current bankroll: $13,350
Note to self: go back through notes to self and actually post about them when they are relevant
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Interpoker bonus
Finally got round to checking how my bonus was going compared to rake on Interpoker.
Pokertracker2 tells me that i've paid approx $67 in rake. Interestingly, my RTR indicates a rake paid of $83. Not sure what the difference is - maybe PT2 is calculating contributed rake, versus RTR paying rakeback on dealt?
I've also earnt 280mpps - and need to get to 1,500mpps to clear $370 (150pounds + $120) in bonus cash. So effectively that's around $70 of the bonus cleared.
All up then my bonus appears to be clearing at around 100%, and then the cream on top is the rakeback of $27. Happy with the deal so far.
As far as play goes, I put in about half an hour last night, and started horrendously with a number of nasty suck outs in the space of 5 minutes putting me down by around 30BBs. One particularly nasty one was when I held AK on a board of AK8r. Turn 3, river 6. I got called all the way and reraised on the river by a guy showing down 66 ... wtf were they thinking. Add in a few similar beats and i'm ready to punch a hole in my monitor.
However, the remainder of the session was significantly improved, and these clowns kept calling down with trash, and my hands kept holding up. I also managed to hit a flush draw or two for the nut flush in a couple big pots which also helped. In the end I was around 15BBs up on a combination of $1/2 and $2/4 tables.
I also dabbled briefly on a full ring table which had a players per flop of 50%. Unfortunately by the 2nd orbit the 3 massive fish had busted out, so I quit as well after breaking even, but making quite a few MPPs just because they were building big pots every hand.
Current bankroll: $13,300
note to self next post - considering eurolinx through RTR to get back onto some fishy microgaming.
Pokertracker2 tells me that i've paid approx $67 in rake. Interestingly, my RTR indicates a rake paid of $83. Not sure what the difference is - maybe PT2 is calculating contributed rake, versus RTR paying rakeback on dealt?
I've also earnt 280mpps - and need to get to 1,500mpps to clear $370 (150pounds + $120) in bonus cash. So effectively that's around $70 of the bonus cleared.
All up then my bonus appears to be clearing at around 100%, and then the cream on top is the rakeback of $27. Happy with the deal so far.
As far as play goes, I put in about half an hour last night, and started horrendously with a number of nasty suck outs in the space of 5 minutes putting me down by around 30BBs. One particularly nasty one was when I held AK on a board of AK8r. Turn 3, river 6. I got called all the way and reraised on the river by a guy showing down 66 ... wtf were they thinking. Add in a few similar beats and i'm ready to punch a hole in my monitor.
However, the remainder of the session was significantly improved, and these clowns kept calling down with trash, and my hands kept holding up. I also managed to hit a flush draw or two for the nut flush in a couple big pots which also helped. In the end I was around 15BBs up on a combination of $1/2 and $2/4 tables.
I also dabbled briefly on a full ring table which had a players per flop of 50%. Unfortunately by the 2nd orbit the 3 massive fish had busted out, so I quit as well after breaking even, but making quite a few MPPs just because they were building big pots every hand.
Current bankroll: $13,300
note to self next post - considering eurolinx through RTR to get back onto some fishy microgaming.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Running cool
All this looking at PT blind stats made me actually have a look at how I've been running lately. Well that and the fact that I haven't been increasing the bankroll much lately.
I've had the Bodog hand grabber for a bit over a three weeks now so have 3,000 hands in my database. My stats read something like 27% vpip (fractionally low), PFR 20% (about right), AF 2.05 (about right), WTSD 35% (fractionally low) and a W$SD of 45% (a good 10% lower than it should be with that WTSD and VPIP). Overall i'm running at a profit of about 0.3BB/100.
Now with a W$SD that low, i'm running quite cold, and am actually pretty lucky to still be showing a profit at the tables. Effectively being 10% means that out of every 100 hands, I'm seeing about 30 flops. Of those 30 i'm going to showdown in 10 of them, and winning 4.5 of them, where I should be winning 5.5 of them. My average showdown would be about 8BBs, so losing out 8BB/100 over 3,000 hands is roughly a 240BB variance. Kinda sux really, but hopefully it will start evening out soon and the fishes will pay me off.
Problem is i'm showing similar stats on Interpoker, except an even smaller VPIP, and am well down running at -7BB/100 but over a small sample size of maybe 700 hands. Things will hopefully return to normal soon.
I put in a bit under half an hour of play and actually won on both Bodog and Interpoker, which was handy. Most of the tables were playing out pretty much to regulation, with only one fish on one table sucking out on me on about 3 hands in a row, and then losing to everyone else. He had a WTSD of 65% and a W$SD of 20%. Problem was a lot of my showdowns seemed to be in that 20%. Made about 30BBs but only at 1/2 as I just sat on the waiting list of 2 $2/4 tables for the entire half hour.
Current bankroll: $13,250
I've had the Bodog hand grabber for a bit over a three weeks now so have 3,000 hands in my database. My stats read something like 27% vpip (fractionally low), PFR 20% (about right), AF 2.05 (about right), WTSD 35% (fractionally low) and a W$SD of 45% (a good 10% lower than it should be with that WTSD and VPIP). Overall i'm running at a profit of about 0.3BB/100.
Now with a W$SD that low, i'm running quite cold, and am actually pretty lucky to still be showing a profit at the tables. Effectively being 10% means that out of every 100 hands, I'm seeing about 30 flops. Of those 30 i'm going to showdown in 10 of them, and winning 4.5 of them, where I should be winning 5.5 of them. My average showdown would be about 8BBs, so losing out 8BB/100 over 3,000 hands is roughly a 240BB variance. Kinda sux really, but hopefully it will start evening out soon and the fishes will pay me off.
Problem is i'm showing similar stats on Interpoker, except an even smaller VPIP, and am well down running at -7BB/100 but over a small sample size of maybe 700 hands. Things will hopefully return to normal soon.
I put in a bit under half an hour of play and actually won on both Bodog and Interpoker, which was handy. Most of the tables were playing out pretty much to regulation, with only one fish on one table sucking out on me on about 3 hands in a row, and then losing to everyone else. He had a WTSD of 65% and a W$SD of 20%. Problem was a lot of my showdowns seemed to be in that 20%. Made about 30BBs but only at 1/2 as I just sat on the waiting list of 2 $2/4 tables for the entire half hour.
Current bankroll: $13,250
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Playing from the blinds
Here's my thoughts on blind play as requested by Adam.
Frst thing to note, as suggested by the blindman, is that playing from the blinds is -EV. No matter how good you are you're not going to be a long term winner from the blinds. The two reasons for this are 1) you're putting in a bet before seeing your cards, and 2) you're out of position on every street.
I'm not sure which is the biggest factor, although being out of position really really sux.
Therefore my aim when playing in the blinds, is to lose the least amount possible. How do I do that? Well, from the SB, basically play super tight unless you have the opportunity to steal the BB. From the BB, play a little looser as you've already got that bet in, but still reasonably tight.
At the moment my stats show I see around 50% of flops from the BB and about 15 - 20% of flops from the SB. Obviously a number of those in the BB are freebies, but it also highlights just how tight I am in the SB.
Now, taking the BB for a second, i'll raise up limpers if I have anything above say JTs or KQo. If i'm facing a raise from early position its a different story though - i'll basically just call if I have anything better than 87s or QJo, and reraise with 99+ or QJs+ or AQo. The QJS might be a little loose for a reraise so I might have to think about that some more. If i'm facing a steal raise, i'm much more liberal with calling .. even calling down to 65o. If there are cold callers as well as the raiser, i'm more likely to also play any two suited. My overall aim is to be seeing a little more than 50% of flops. Basically the reason for this is that if you see anyone who folds more than 50% of their BBs to steals, its EV+ for them to steal every single time. That being said, I adjust my calling/raising/folding ranges depending upon how tight/loose/aggressive my opponent is.
The SB is a generall a very different story, apart from raising limpers. Basically you want to raise limpers to isolate, so I play with a similar raising range as when i'm in the BB. If a limper is super loose i'll even raise a little wider, but not much. I will however overlimp scs down to about 76s and any pocket pair, particularly if there are multiple limpers before me. When facing a raise however, in the SB i'm generally folding, and only reraising with basically QJs, KQo, 88 or better. I'd only overcall if the raiser has been followed by 2 cold callers and I have a reasonable but not dominated hand (eg scs). Basically i'm folding a lot in the SB. If its folded to me in the SB, i'm stealing with all sorts of trash. If the BB folds over 50% of their BBs i'm stealing every single time with any two cards.
What does all this mean for my stats in the blinds? Well at the moment with about a 30k hand sample the SB is showing -7bb/100 and the BB -13BB/100. I'm not actually sure what the benchmarks are, but I suspect that's about normal for 6max.
Now for the weekend's play. It started fantastically. I put in about two hours, and slowly but surely built up my bankroll, playing around 4 tables at a time, mainly at $2/4 and a little at $1/2. No real unusual hands - just the normal hitting and missing my share of draws. Cbetting and taking down regular pots. Having a couple fish dominated who would call me down with dominated hands. Solid session for about 60BBs
What followed that, however, was a horror session where two players - 85/35/2/60 completely killed me. One was kind enough to continuously suck out on me, and then donate it to the other players on the table the very next hand. The other, managed to kill the whole table and had a 65% W$SD to go with his 60% of showdowns. Effectively he won over half the hands of my session of over 100 hands against 5 opponents. I'm sure i'm due to run that hot sooner or later ..... Anyways I ended up dropping a good 80BBs, so have had a small drop in the bankroll, which will hopefully be made up by rakeback in the next day or so. I thought my October had turned around back well into the black. I was mistaken. Oh well .. next time the fish will pay!
Current Bankroll: $13,200
Frst thing to note, as suggested by the blindman, is that playing from the blinds is -EV. No matter how good you are you're not going to be a long term winner from the blinds. The two reasons for this are 1) you're putting in a bet before seeing your cards, and 2) you're out of position on every street.
I'm not sure which is the biggest factor, although being out of position really really sux.
Therefore my aim when playing in the blinds, is to lose the least amount possible. How do I do that? Well, from the SB, basically play super tight unless you have the opportunity to steal the BB. From the BB, play a little looser as you've already got that bet in, but still reasonably tight.
At the moment my stats show I see around 50% of flops from the BB and about 15 - 20% of flops from the SB. Obviously a number of those in the BB are freebies, but it also highlights just how tight I am in the SB.
Now, taking the BB for a second, i'll raise up limpers if I have anything above say JTs or KQo. If i'm facing a raise from early position its a different story though - i'll basically just call if I have anything better than 87s or QJo, and reraise with 99+ or QJs+ or AQo. The QJS might be a little loose for a reraise so I might have to think about that some more. If i'm facing a steal raise, i'm much more liberal with calling .. even calling down to 65o. If there are cold callers as well as the raiser, i'm more likely to also play any two suited. My overall aim is to be seeing a little more than 50% of flops. Basically the reason for this is that if you see anyone who folds more than 50% of their BBs to steals, its EV+ for them to steal every single time. That being said, I adjust my calling/raising/folding ranges depending upon how tight/loose/aggressive my opponent is.
The SB is a generall a very different story, apart from raising limpers. Basically you want to raise limpers to isolate, so I play with a similar raising range as when i'm in the BB. If a limper is super loose i'll even raise a little wider, but not much. I will however overlimp scs down to about 76s and any pocket pair, particularly if there are multiple limpers before me. When facing a raise however, in the SB i'm generally folding, and only reraising with basically QJs, KQo, 88 or better. I'd only overcall if the raiser has been followed by 2 cold callers and I have a reasonable but not dominated hand (eg scs). Basically i'm folding a lot in the SB. If its folded to me in the SB, i'm stealing with all sorts of trash. If the BB folds over 50% of their BBs i'm stealing every single time with any two cards.
What does all this mean for my stats in the blinds? Well at the moment with about a 30k hand sample the SB is showing -7bb/100 and the BB -13BB/100. I'm not actually sure what the benchmarks are, but I suspect that's about normal for 6max.
Now for the weekend's play. It started fantastically. I put in about two hours, and slowly but surely built up my bankroll, playing around 4 tables at a time, mainly at $2/4 and a little at $1/2. No real unusual hands - just the normal hitting and missing my share of draws. Cbetting and taking down regular pots. Having a couple fish dominated who would call me down with dominated hands. Solid session for about 60BBs
What followed that, however, was a horror session where two players - 85/35/2/60 completely killed me. One was kind enough to continuously suck out on me, and then donate it to the other players on the table the very next hand. The other, managed to kill the whole table and had a 65% W$SD to go with his 60% of showdowns. Effectively he won over half the hands of my session of over 100 hands against 5 opponents. I'm sure i'm due to run that hot sooner or later ..... Anyways I ended up dropping a good 80BBs, so have had a small drop in the bankroll, which will hopefully be made up by rakeback in the next day or so. I thought my October had turned around back well into the black. I was mistaken. Oh well .. next time the fish will pay!
Current Bankroll: $13,200
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Thought I was clawing back up
With a nice little rakeback boost, I figured I was on the way back.
Also first hand of a half hour session for the day i'm dealt KQs which flops KcQcQd with 3 runners. One guy raises flop and I just call, and 3rd runner also calls. Turn brings another club which villain bets out, I raise, and the turn gets capped in the end. River was a blank. Villain still gets in a raise but only calls my reraise showing a 9 high flush. Great start.
From then on it went decidedly backwards, with the usual horrific suck outs, and I actually dropped cash at the tables, although my rakeback kept me well in front for the session.
I've signed up at Interpoker with my account in pounds. The rakeback/bonus deal through RTR gives me approx 90% effective rakeback. Then you add on the cash equivalent payment of $120 for their ipod if I get 1,500 points by 30 November, and my rakeback is effectively over 100%. Nice.
I've actually found some reasonably fishy tables there too which is handy. I'm running like dog balls though with a VPIP of 21% ... ie i'm gettin no cards preflop, a WTSD of 34% ... a little low, particularly with such a low VPIP, and a W$SD of 35% ... very low .. ffs.
However, on the site i'm only $20 down so far, so with rakeback i'm probably actually up or very near to it. With such a low W$SD I should be down a long way, however, several hands i've won have been quite big. Including one hand where I had AcQh and flopped Jc4c7c, turn 2c so I have the nuts, and since the turn was heads up they allow unlimited raising, and i've ended up 6betting the turn before my opponent just called.
Anyways will see how it goes. Pulled in about 75 points out of the 1,500 that I need in a couple sessions, so I figure i'll get there relatively quickly.
Back Monday. Hopefully the weekend is a little more profitable!
Current bankroll: $13,250
Also first hand of a half hour session for the day i'm dealt KQs which flops KcQcQd with 3 runners. One guy raises flop and I just call, and 3rd runner also calls. Turn brings another club which villain bets out, I raise, and the turn gets capped in the end. River was a blank. Villain still gets in a raise but only calls my reraise showing a 9 high flush. Great start.
From then on it went decidedly backwards, with the usual horrific suck outs, and I actually dropped cash at the tables, although my rakeback kept me well in front for the session.
I've signed up at Interpoker with my account in pounds. The rakeback/bonus deal through RTR gives me approx 90% effective rakeback. Then you add on the cash equivalent payment of $120 for their ipod if I get 1,500 points by 30 November, and my rakeback is effectively over 100%. Nice.
I've actually found some reasonably fishy tables there too which is handy. I'm running like dog balls though with a VPIP of 21% ... ie i'm gettin no cards preflop, a WTSD of 34% ... a little low, particularly with such a low VPIP, and a W$SD of 35% ... very low .. ffs.
However, on the site i'm only $20 down so far, so with rakeback i'm probably actually up or very near to it. With such a low W$SD I should be down a long way, however, several hands i've won have been quite big. Including one hand where I had AcQh and flopped Jc4c7c, turn 2c so I have the nuts, and since the turn was heads up they allow unlimited raising, and i've ended up 6betting the turn before my opponent just called.
Anyways will see how it goes. Pulled in about 75 points out of the 1,500 that I need in a couple sessions, so I figure i'll get there relatively quickly.
Back Monday. Hopefully the weekend is a little more profitable!
Current bankroll: $13,250
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
A win on Littlewoods?
Well, bugger me, after the usual start of a session on Littlewoods where I dropped a quick 20BBs against one muppet, I actually managed to come back and end up in the positive.
My key losing hands were QQ on a KQ2r flop, which got 6 bet on the flop before I finally called, figuring he must have had the nuts (good onya Crypto .. I guess there's no cap to the betting on any street?). I decided to call down after that, and when the turn was a 9 and river a 4, I ended up with the trips I started with. Muppet then showed JTo, so he actually 6 bet the flop with only 8 outs, but actually hit it on the turn. ARGH
Next hand I have AK, and his A8 obviously beats me when the flop is A8x. Couple hands later I have 22 and raise which he calls. Flop of JJ8. He calls my raise on the turn of a 3 and then the river pairs the board again with an 8. I decide to b/f and he calls my bet and shows down 76o to take the pot with 7 high ... no pair, no draw ... WTF???
However, after that I found a seat at a great table, with one fish sitting directly on my right with a VPIP of about 75, PFR of about 5, AF of 0.5 and a WTSD of around 50%. Almost the perfect fish! And he started with a stack of around $200 which he luckboxed up to $300 off a couple other guys on the table. Of course he sucked out a couple early on me as well, and I was beginning to think here we go again, but then he proceeded to call me down several times when I had top pair or better and he had literally nothing. I also flopped a fullhouse at one stage and someone again called me down, and later I managed a bit of a suck out against a decent aggro opponent with my A2s preflop v AK with a flop of 652r ... although at least I flopped a pair and when my opponent didn't bet the blank river I figured I was in front still.
By the time the fish left he had around $100 left, and I probably had about $100 of what he had lost. In the end I made about $50 on Littlewoods. Not a big win, but at least a step in the right direction.
I checked my Pokertracker stats, and I have actually been showing down too much on Littlewoods which is contributing to my losses there. I am around a 44% WTSD where i'd rather be a little under 40% so i'm obviously calling down or betting too much when I am behind. The last session actually dropped my WTSD to 43.5% so hopefully I can keep playing well (or hitting good cards if my WTSD stays so high).
I also picked up $50 in bonus from 24poker last night, so I have about $250 to go in bonus $ there, and also finished the monthly $50 from William Hill, and won around 20BBs on the table at the same time, so it turned out to be a reasonable session.
Current Bankroll: $8,900 (plus $280 in August from Littlewoods)
My key losing hands were QQ on a KQ2r flop, which got 6 bet on the flop before I finally called, figuring he must have had the nuts (good onya Crypto .. I guess there's no cap to the betting on any street?). I decided to call down after that, and when the turn was a 9 and river a 4, I ended up with the trips I started with. Muppet then showed JTo, so he actually 6 bet the flop with only 8 outs, but actually hit it on the turn. ARGH
Next hand I have AK, and his A8 obviously beats me when the flop is A8x. Couple hands later I have 22 and raise which he calls. Flop of JJ8. He calls my raise on the turn of a 3 and then the river pairs the board again with an 8. I decide to b/f and he calls my bet and shows down 76o to take the pot with 7 high ... no pair, no draw ... WTF???
However, after that I found a seat at a great table, with one fish sitting directly on my right with a VPIP of about 75, PFR of about 5, AF of 0.5 and a WTSD of around 50%. Almost the perfect fish! And he started with a stack of around $200 which he luckboxed up to $300 off a couple other guys on the table. Of course he sucked out a couple early on me as well, and I was beginning to think here we go again, but then he proceeded to call me down several times when I had top pair or better and he had literally nothing. I also flopped a fullhouse at one stage and someone again called me down, and later I managed a bit of a suck out against a decent aggro opponent with my A2s preflop v AK with a flop of 652r ... although at least I flopped a pair and when my opponent didn't bet the blank river I figured I was in front still.
By the time the fish left he had around $100 left, and I probably had about $100 of what he had lost. In the end I made about $50 on Littlewoods. Not a big win, but at least a step in the right direction.
I checked my Pokertracker stats, and I have actually been showing down too much on Littlewoods which is contributing to my losses there. I am around a 44% WTSD where i'd rather be a little under 40% so i'm obviously calling down or betting too much when I am behind. The last session actually dropped my WTSD to 43.5% so hopefully I can keep playing well (or hitting good cards if my WTSD stays so high).
I also picked up $50 in bonus from 24poker last night, so I have about $250 to go in bonus $ there, and also finished the monthly $50 from William Hill, and won around 20BBs on the table at the same time, so it turned out to be a reasonable session.
Current Bankroll: $8,900 (plus $280 in August from Littlewoods)
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Getting colder!!
Another terrible session for me, including the usual horrendous beats. Had my AA flop A74r and obviously someone with 96s calls down and hits their runner runner flush for a 17BB pot. Next hand I recieve AK, and flop AK2r. Obviously get called down by QTo who hits their J on the river for another 20BB pot.
Manage to lose with AA again about 4 hands later. Talk about a roller coaster ... AA WOOHOO ... turn, river ... lose showdown ARGH! I then score QQ .. A on the river of course to lose, get AK again and flop AA7r, runner runner flush again to lose. Also managed to lose another AA to 52o again with the straight hitting on the river - that must be my bogey hand.
Overall I managed to drop another 90BBs (at $2/4). Maybe i've developed some leaks in my game?? I had a quick check of pokertracker.
On littlewoods, out of my 15 tables played, I have won 2 sessions. Normally I would win 8 of those. Weird.
Checked my summary tab on Pokertracker to find if there were any hands in particular that were costing me heaps. Some of my big losers are AA, AKs, AK, AQo (haven't even had AQs yet), ATs, AT, KK, KQs, KQ, KJs (actually not a single K hand is green), QQ, QJs, TT, 99, 88. I guess I should be happy that at least JJ is currently a winner?? Sheesh.
At least i've cleared almost half of the requirements for my Littlewoods bonus .. although at this rate the bonus will be less than what i've lost!!! I'm sure my hands will start holding up soon though! I won't include any of the bonus in my bankroll though until it clears.
Current bankroll: $8,100
Manage to lose with AA again about 4 hands later. Talk about a roller coaster ... AA WOOHOO ... turn, river ... lose showdown ARGH! I then score QQ .. A on the river of course to lose, get AK again and flop AA7r, runner runner flush again to lose. Also managed to lose another AA to 52o again with the straight hitting on the river - that must be my bogey hand.
Overall I managed to drop another 90BBs (at $2/4). Maybe i've developed some leaks in my game?? I had a quick check of pokertracker.
On littlewoods, out of my 15 tables played, I have won 2 sessions. Normally I would win 8 of those. Weird.
Checked my summary tab on Pokertracker to find if there were any hands in particular that were costing me heaps. Some of my big losers are AA, AKs, AK, AQo (haven't even had AQs yet), ATs, AT, KK, KQs, KQ, KJs (actually not a single K hand is green), QQ, QJs, TT, 99, 88. I guess I should be happy that at least JJ is currently a winner?? Sheesh.
At least i've cleared almost half of the requirements for my Littlewoods bonus .. although at this rate the bonus will be less than what i've lost!!! I'm sure my hands will start holding up soon though! I won't include any of the bonus in my bankroll though until it clears.
Current bankroll: $8,100
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
An interesting, but somewhat useless stat
Only played a 20 minute session, and pretty much went nowhere. Started off down when one guy hit his set of 3s on the river to my KK. Also got hammered by another guy hitting his runner runner gutshot straight to my AJ pairing the J on the flop. However, I grabbed it all back when they kept on chasing incredibly bad draws versus my made hands. Unfortunately I had to leave when the fish were still biting pretty hard.
I had a quick look at my Pokertracker stats, and found that i've now played 100 'sessions' at $1/2 on 24poker. A session effectively being any block of continuous play on a single table .. so if I was 3 tabling at the same time, it would count as 3 sessions. Over those 100 sessions i've won 56% of them (my interesting stat of the day). Given that i've been winning unusually well on 24 at around 4BB/100, maybe that does sound a bit low. However, i've played approx 4,000 hands in that time with an average 'session' of only 40 hands which could explain a lot of the losing sessions as there will be huge variance in short sessions. Actually, if I really think about it, 56% is actually showing a pretty big edge for limit poker. I'm sure for no limit the stat should probably be higher, but maybe it is quite reasonable for limit poker.
The key thing though, I think, is that my winning sessions are showing significantly bigger wins than the losing sessions are showing losses.
So overall what does it tell me. Hmmm ... not much :)
However, of probably more interest, is that i've cleared $500 of bonus in those 4,000 hands, which equates to $0.125 per hand, or $12.50/100 or 6.25BB/100. That alone is a pretty significant return. It will be a sad day when it runs out after I clear the final $500!
Current Bankroll: $8,300
I had a quick look at my Pokertracker stats, and found that i've now played 100 'sessions' at $1/2 on 24poker. A session effectively being any block of continuous play on a single table .. so if I was 3 tabling at the same time, it would count as 3 sessions. Over those 100 sessions i've won 56% of them (my interesting stat of the day). Given that i've been winning unusually well on 24 at around 4BB/100, maybe that does sound a bit low. However, i've played approx 4,000 hands in that time with an average 'session' of only 40 hands which could explain a lot of the losing sessions as there will be huge variance in short sessions. Actually, if I really think about it, 56% is actually showing a pretty big edge for limit poker. I'm sure for no limit the stat should probably be higher, but maybe it is quite reasonable for limit poker.
The key thing though, I think, is that my winning sessions are showing significantly bigger wins than the losing sessions are showing losses.
So overall what does it tell me. Hmmm ... not much :)
However, of probably more interest, is that i've cleared $500 of bonus in those 4,000 hands, which equates to $0.125 per hand, or $12.50/100 or 6.25BB/100. That alone is a pretty significant return. It will be a sad day when it runs out after I clear the final $500!
Current Bankroll: $8,300
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Stats - the river
Thought i'd better have a quick check of the 'more details' summary on pokertracker, just in case I have developed any more leaks in my game.
On a quick view, only 2 stats really stood out. My AF on the river was only just over 1, and my fold to a river bet was 30%.
It looks like probably i'm not value betting enough on the river, and should have a slightly higher AF, but as compensation, i'm calling down a lot of river bets. I suspect i'm taking the theories of not betting when I will only get called by a better hand and checking to induce a bluff on the river to the extreme, and it may actually be a leak.
I will have to make sure I am getting this right. Might have to refer back to the stox or shorthanded books to brush up on the theory as well.
Anyways, only played briefly on the tables, and made about 20BBs on the $1/2 table. Was well up on a $2/4 table before I missed about 3 draws in a row, and managed to have my QJ dominated by KQ in a stealing situation. Disappointing not to end further up, but any positive session is a good session :)
cyas next week
Current Bankroll: $7,950
On a quick view, only 2 stats really stood out. My AF on the river was only just over 1, and my fold to a river bet was 30%.
It looks like probably i'm not value betting enough on the river, and should have a slightly higher AF, but as compensation, i'm calling down a lot of river bets. I suspect i'm taking the theories of not betting when I will only get called by a better hand and checking to induce a bluff on the river to the extreme, and it may actually be a leak.
I will have to make sure I am getting this right. Might have to refer back to the stox or shorthanded books to brush up on the theory as well.
Anyways, only played briefly on the tables, and made about 20BBs on the $1/2 table. Was well up on a $2/4 table before I missed about 3 draws in a row, and managed to have my QJ dominated by KQ in a stealing situation. Disappointing not to end further up, but any positive session is a good session :)
cyas next week
Current Bankroll: $7,950
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
A quick stats check
After another 1 hour session which went down before going up to about a $20 profit. I was not able to table select at all which was very irritating. Sometimes being on Aussie time kinda sux, as there are relatively few tables running (none on crypto!! none at $1/2 on 24poker!! about 5 on bigslick but with % seeing flop < 30% which looked too tight). I did manage to get one fish on my right though on one table, who consistently called down with nothing, which did allow me to recover my early losses.
However, I thought i'd better have a quick check of my stats, as maybe i've developed a leak or two in my game that is costing me.
I have played about 2,400 hands on 24poker, so I know, a very small sample, but a quick look at my overall stats shows:
At $2/4 i've only played 300 hands:
However, I thought i'd better have a quick check of my stats, as maybe i've developed a leak or two in my game that is costing me.
I have played about 2,400 hands on 24poker, so I know, a very small sample, but a quick look at my overall stats shows:
- vpip: 27.5
- wtsd: 36
- W$sd: 51
- AF: 2.3
- PTBB/100: 0.8
At $2/4 i've only played 300 hands:
- VPIP 23 (ack too low)
- wtsd 27 (ack too low, and even worse given the low VPIP which should skew this higher)
- W$SD 55 (actually higher than normal - but due to playing fewer hands and who)
- AF: 3 (turn af 4.5!!! river 2.1!!! - way too high)
- BB/100: -1 !!!!
At $1/2 i've played about 2,100 hands
- wtsd 38
- W$SD 50
- bb/100: 1.5
- AF: 2
So it looks like my $2/4 results are skewing my overall figures. Such a small sample would simply be variance I believe, although based on a quick look my aggression is way too high at 2/4 - maybe i've been bluffing too many turns with continuation bets, and even firing a 3rd bullet on the river. I'm also not going to showdown enough at $2/4, which could be simply i've been missing the flops.
The $1/2 results actually look quite good and closer to my long term stats on any other poker site. I will continue to watch the $2/4 statistics though. I can remember I had a TAG on my right the other day which may have contributed to a lower WTSD, and a lower VPIP at $2/4.
Current Bankroll: $7,450
Monday, February 18, 2008
Software
Thought i'd just start this entry with my current software that I use for poker (where sites allow it).
I currently utilise Pokertracker for all my statistics recording, and Gametime+ for a HUD. I'm debating switching to Pokerace, as i've found that Gametime+ needs at least an orbit for you to run it, whereas pokerace will come up straight away ... any thoughts out there?
I find Pokertracker to be vital in both analysing my own game, and then in feeding the HUD to view other players' styles, and to select my seat at the table - or whether to even play on a table in the first place if its too tight! (but that can be another blog entry)
So far playing 6max limit holdem my key stats per pokertracker show
I currently utilise Pokertracker for all my statistics recording, and Gametime+ for a HUD. I'm debating switching to Pokerace, as i've found that Gametime+ needs at least an orbit for you to run it, whereas pokerace will come up straight away ... any thoughts out there?
I find Pokertracker to be vital in both analysing my own game, and then in feeding the HUD to view other players' styles, and to select my seat at the table - or whether to even play on a table in the first place if its too tight! (but that can be another blog entry)
So far playing 6max limit holdem my key stats per pokertracker show
- a VPIP of around 28
- PFR 20
- AF 2
- WTSD 40%
- W$SD 51%
I'm currently pretty happy with my VPIP (voluntarily put in pot) where I loosely utilise the Stoxtrader guidelines, with some adjustments for opponents. I think I can comfortably say i'm happy with a preflop raise of 20% and an aggression factor of 2. For my went to show down, I suspect 40% is a little bit too high, and i'd like that to read closer to 38 or 39%, which should also increase my win $ at show down %.
As far as poker playing goes, I think i've done about 8 hours or so since my last blog (I had the day off work yesterday - but also had to keep my new kitten under control). It started poorly, as I dropped a quick $80 the day after my last post. I then proceeded to have a shocking run of bad beats, which included
- Twice having the nut flush only for the board to pair on the river to lose to a full house
- 3 times having the top pair or better, only to have a gutshot hit my opponent on the river
- 3 times having AK with the flop including an A against AX where X is less than 10 and X hitting again on the river
- Twice having the nut straight only for a flush to hit on the river
Having said that, I also received a Party poker reload, which I only took up for $15 (15% at 8x points), where i quickly proceeded to have a super hot run of hitting every flop on a super soft table with people calling me down and making $150 in about 15 mins on 2/4. I also noticed in my email today another one from Party offering a $60 bonus, so i'll have to see what kinda deal I get there, and might end up taking that one up too.
On the bonus front, i've got 3 hours to go on William Hill to finish that for the month, 150 more MPPs on Sun Poker to clear $150, and i've still got a heap on Cake left to clear within the next 20 days or so. The supersoft games on party are tempting as well though ....
I also played the William Hill RTR freeroll yesterday, and managed to crash and burn. Overplayed a middle pair, and then ran supercold eventually having to push with A6s .. oh well.
Current profit: $3,960
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